Sunday, 31 May 2020
Thursday, 28 May 2020
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/coronavirus-vaccine-news-merck-novavax-stocks-pop/.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/geopolitical-power-play-over-coronavirus-vaccine-leaves-drugmakers-in-the-middle-11590577849?mod=hp_lead_pos4.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/moderna-stock-is-giving-investors-a-wild-ride-blame-it-on-shifting-covid-19-vaccine-news-51590676846
https://www.wsj.com/articles/geopolitical-power-play-over-coronavirus-vaccine-leaves-drugmakers-in-the-middle-11590577849?mod=hp_lead_pos4.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/moderna-stock-is-giving-investors-a-wild-ride-blame-it-on-shifting-covid-19-vaccine-news-51590676846
Tuesday, 26 May 2020
https://www.wsj.com/articles/merck-does-deals-to-develop-coronavirus-vaccines-drug-11590489902?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/pfizer-stock-buy-now/
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tuesday-premarket-stock-movers-novavax-regeneron-and-a-soaring-stock-market-51590496187?mod=md_usstk_news
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/pfizer-stock-buy-now/
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tuesday-premarket-stock-movers-novavax-regeneron-and-a-soaring-stock-market-51590496187?mod=md_usstk_news
Monday, 25 May 2020
In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/17/is-buying-a-basket-loaded-with-every-coronavirus-v.aspx?fbclid=IwAR2TJX4kEqnXRWaRzOwPbxpidI-KjQPgvEipk-tDPEv3PH7lTC6XvglT7Z4.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMp2005630?articleTools=true
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/17/is-buying-a-basket-loaded-with-every-coronavirus-v.aspx?fbclid=IwAR2TJX4kEqnXRWaRzOwPbxpidI-KjQPgvEipk-tDPEv3PH7lTC6XvglT7Z4.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMp2005630?articleTools=true
Sunday, 24 May 2020
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2020/05/20/the-man-betting-1-billion-that-pfizer-can-deliver-a-vaccine-by-this-fall/#28e7abff382e.
INOVIO:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/biotech-inovio-stock-stock-covid-19-rna-dna-vaccine-clinical-trial-phase-1-journal-nature-51589991135.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/day-trading-has-replaced-sports-betting-as-americas-pastime-it-cant-support-the-stock-market-forever-51590174899?mod=past_editions
Here's a couple bearish articles. Here come the Louisiana Trial Lawyers to go after Moderna:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/PR-CO-20200522-913334.
The Oxford University Jenner Institute: COVID virus dying out! So can't develop a vaccine for a disappearing virus. Yikes. If this thing disappears, so goes the bubble -- deflates very quickly.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oxford-university-vaccine-trials-run-into-hurdle-telegraph-1.1440535
INOVIO:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/biotech-inovio-stock-stock-covid-19-rna-dna-vaccine-clinical-trial-phase-1-journal-nature-51589991135.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/day-trading-has-replaced-sports-betting-as-americas-pastime-it-cant-support-the-stock-market-forever-51590174899?mod=past_editions
Here's a couple bearish articles. Here come the Louisiana Trial Lawyers to go after Moderna:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/PR-CO-20200522-913334.
The Oxford University Jenner Institute: COVID virus dying out! So can't develop a vaccine for a disappearing virus. Yikes. If this thing disappears, so goes the bubble -- deflates very quickly.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oxford-university-vaccine-trials-run-into-hurdle-telegraph-1.1440535
Thursday, 21 May 2020
BARDA sides with the Oxford University vaccine:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/astrazeneca-stock-funding-commitment-covid-19-vaccine-oxford-51590066655.
This may have tanked all the American vaccine stocks today. Was the worst COVID vaccine stock in awhile.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/astrazeneca-stock-funding-commitment-covid-19-vaccine-oxford-51590066655.
This may have tanked all the American vaccine stocks today. Was the worst COVID vaccine stock in awhile.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/21/top-hiv-scientist-says-dont-count-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine-soon/.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trust-being-undermined-harvard-medical-school-prof-questions-faucis-shading-vaccine-results
We need to face facts, the vaccine gold rush is a type of mania-panic with a corresponding bubble in these stocks.
This is a ponzi scheme with a lot of hype and these bio-pharma companies executives are enjoying a once in a life time opportunity to get unimaginably rich.
The real question is whether an investor can ease up to the fire to get nice and warm without getting burned.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trust-being-undermined-harvard-medical-school-prof-questions-faucis-shading-vaccine-results
We need to face facts, the vaccine gold rush is a type of mania-panic with a corresponding bubble in these stocks.
This is a ponzi scheme with a lot of hype and these bio-pharma companies executives are enjoying a once in a life time opportunity to get unimaginably rich.
The real question is whether an investor can ease up to the fire to get nice and warm without getting burned.
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202005200615DGAP____CORPNEWS_corporate_1051973_en-1.
One of the core COVID vaccine players is Nanoviricides (NNVC) from Shelton, CT.
On May 20, 2020 they issued a press release that was, as usual for these companies, positive. But the stock dropped almost 6% on an up stock market day. Still, NNVC is up over three times since the beginning of 2020.
They infected some unfortunate rats with a coronavirus similar to COVID 19. Giving the little guy several different candidate medicines through his tail, they found that the best candidate resulted in an average body weight loss of only 8%. Losing weight is a proxy for how well the body is dealing with the virus.
These candidates performed better in this regard than Remdesivir which Gilead trumpeted a few weeks ago.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/PR-CO-20200521-908526
Issuing more shares.....
One of the core COVID vaccine players is Nanoviricides (NNVC) from Shelton, CT.
On May 20, 2020 they issued a press release that was, as usual for these companies, positive. But the stock dropped almost 6% on an up stock market day. Still, NNVC is up over three times since the beginning of 2020.
They infected some unfortunate rats with a coronavirus similar to COVID 19. Giving the little guy several different candidate medicines through his tail, they found that the best candidate resulted in an average body weight loss of only 8%. Losing weight is a proxy for how well the body is dealing with the virus.
These candidates performed better in this regard than Remdesivir which Gilead trumpeted a few weeks ago.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/PR-CO-20200521-908526
Issuing more shares.....
Wednesday, 20 May 2020
INOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS (INO)
One of the core COVID vaccine stocks is Inovio. On a down day yesterday, it was up 2.75%.
This California company does advanced (Phase 2/3) work on MERS and is using that basis for the COVID vaccine which they call INO 4800.
On a call yesterday, the CEO, Dr. Joseph Kim discussed the "Brothers in Arms" approach with others like Moderna, indicating they are working together against a common enemy.
There does seem to be some sibling rivalry as they took a couple shots at Moderna:
-Storing doses of INO's vaccine will be easier--it can be maintained at refrigerated temperatures. For Moderna, the mRNA vaccine needs to be stored at -80 degrees. No way delivering hundreds of millions or billions of doses will be easy at -80 degrees.
-There was some question of the data as it relates to T-Cells. So the comment about the vague results from Moderna on Monday was highlighted.
Interestingly, the CEO stated that this is not a zero sum game in that there will be one winner take all. Many different COVID vaccine creators and producers will be necessary. If this is true, that makes this much less risky for the Covid investor.
Inovio also has some advanced immunotherapies and vaccines for cancer treatment.
This California company does advanced (Phase 2/3) work on MERS and is using that basis for the COVID vaccine which they call INO 4800.
On a call yesterday, the CEO, Dr. Joseph Kim discussed the "Brothers in Arms" approach with others like Moderna, indicating they are working together against a common enemy.
There does seem to be some sibling rivalry as they took a couple shots at Moderna:
-Storing doses of INO's vaccine will be easier--it can be maintained at refrigerated temperatures. For Moderna, the mRNA vaccine needs to be stored at -80 degrees. No way delivering hundreds of millions or billions of doses will be easy at -80 degrees.
-There was some question of the data as it relates to T-Cells. So the comment about the vague results from Moderna on Monday was highlighted.
Interestingly, the CEO stated that this is not a zero sum game in that there will be one winner take all. Many different COVID vaccine creators and producers will be necessary. If this is true, that makes this much less risky for the Covid investor.
Inovio also has some advanced immunotherapies and vaccines for cancer treatment.
Tuesday, 19 May 2020
https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/19/vaccine-experts-say-moderna-didnt-produce-data-critical-to-assessing-covid-19-vaccine/
This article explains why Moderna (MRNA) gave back half of the amazing gain yesterday. The data they presented was evidently more words than data. Hopefully, the staff working on the vaccine itself are as good as the PR folks in the Comms department. It seems MRNA has a bit of reputation for this type of thing.
The best strategy may be to sell into these good news days and buy back after the dust settles and the company is huddled back in their offices planning their next PR offensive.
In spite of this down day, the centrality of the Covid Vaccine quest has been underlined. Criticism of Moderna essentially tanked the whole market. The whole 390 Dow loss occurred from 2:30 on - the same time as the negative article came out.
This article explains why Moderna (MRNA) gave back half of the amazing gain yesterday. The data they presented was evidently more words than data. Hopefully, the staff working on the vaccine itself are as good as the PR folks in the Comms department. It seems MRNA has a bit of reputation for this type of thing.
The best strategy may be to sell into these good news days and buy back after the dust settles and the company is huddled back in their offices planning their next PR offensive.
In spite of this down day, the centrality of the Covid Vaccine quest has been underlined. Criticism of Moderna essentially tanked the whole market. The whole 390 Dow loss occurred from 2:30 on - the same time as the negative article came out.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-covid-19-vaccine-could-be-worth-billions-for-moderna-and-its-rivals-51589902769.
Moderna has a $30 Billion market valuation and has not sold one thing. The price of the vaccine (if there is a vaccine) could cost up to $200 a dose. That would be a very big business. This is back to the Dot Com days of the 90's.
More than Moderna
More than Moderna
As amazing as yesterday (May 18) was for Moderna (MRNA), it literally was only the third best performing vaccine stock.
Vir Biotechnology was up 27% and Novavax (NVAX) was up 37%.
Vir released a paper saying that the antibody from SARS in 2003 does stop COVID development. They have a relationship with Glaxo (GSK).
https://www.wsj.com/articles/PR-CO-20200518-902932.
NVAX has been #1 in the vaccine chase. Here is YTD:
As amazing as yesterday (May 18) was for Moderna (MRNA), it literally was only the third best performing vaccine stock.
Vir Biotechnology was up 27% and Novavax (NVAX) was up 37%.
Vir released a paper saying that the antibody from SARS in 2003 does stop COVID development. They have a relationship with Glaxo (GSK).
https://www.wsj.com/articles/PR-CO-20200518-902932.
NVAX has been #1 in the vaccine chase. Here is YTD:
Vaccine Breakout Day - May 18, 2020.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/modernas-stock-has-tripled-this-year-on-covid-19-vaccine-news-51589882408.
Vaccine Breakout Day - May 18, 2020.
Moderna's amazing announcement yesterday blew things up. All 45 folks who took the sample developed antibodies and with the exception of the one person who had a red mark where the vaccine went in, there were no ill effects. Now it's on to the next round of 600 human tests.
This may be the silver bullet that solves or takes a huge bite out of this plague. Those poor folks in the 1300's dealing with the Black Death did not have a Moderna.
More likely, it won't work or won't work as hoped. It is a new type of vaccine (mRNA) which is a whole different type of platform. Maybe it's the MySpace and we are waiting for Facebook?
As Barron's points out today (above), Moderna may go it alone in distributing the vaccine. They have also made no commitments not to make money from the vaccine. For the vaccine investor, that's good news.
Monday, 18 May 2020
May 18, 2020 - The Gold Rush
Back in March when COVID began to unfurl its wrath, Trump laughably mused about things opening up by Easter (April 12). It was a good sentiment though. It showed where his heart is.
The story has turned from a blip in the news cycle to an obsession.
From February 12 to March 23 the DOW dropped from 29,551 to 18,591 for a 37% drop.
This is where the gold rush comes in. From talking about flattening the curve to save our hospitals from the coming tsunami, we have moved the narrative to some variation of normalcy comes only when we get the vaccine.
That means the vaccine's value needs to be measured in the trillions of dollars.
What's interesting about this pursuit is that there may never be a vaccine. It may simply be too complicated. We do not have a vaccine for HIV or the common cold or the influenza.
Even with clinical success and expedited approvals, it could be a long process. There could also be the need for many different vaccines. It is a complicated web to say the least.
Once there is an effective vaccine, getting it mass produced to the US market and to the rest of the world will be the next herculean effort.
Last week, Trump announced Operation Warp Speed to assist. To say that governments are prepared to through unlimited newly printed dollars at this project is a major understatement.
We may well be in the beginning of the next dot.com bubble. This time it's the COVID Vaccine frenzy.
Back in March when COVID began to unfurl its wrath, Trump laughably mused about things opening up by Easter (April 12). It was a good sentiment though. It showed where his heart is.
The story has turned from a blip in the news cycle to an obsession.
From February 12 to March 23 the DOW dropped from 29,551 to 18,591 for a 37% drop.
This is where the gold rush comes in. From talking about flattening the curve to save our hospitals from the coming tsunami, we have moved the narrative to some variation of normalcy comes only when we get the vaccine.
That means the vaccine's value needs to be measured in the trillions of dollars.
What's interesting about this pursuit is that there may never be a vaccine. It may simply be too complicated. We do not have a vaccine for HIV or the common cold or the influenza.
Even with clinical success and expedited approvals, it could be a long process. There could also be the need for many different vaccines. It is a complicated web to say the least.
Once there is an effective vaccine, getting it mass produced to the US market and to the rest of the world will be the next herculean effort.
Last week, Trump announced Operation Warp Speed to assist. To say that governments are prepared to through unlimited newly printed dollars at this project is a major understatement.
We may well be in the beginning of the next dot.com bubble. This time it's the COVID Vaccine frenzy.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)